Tuesday UEFA Champions League

KidA · Dec 10, 2007

UEFA Champions League

-Marseille vs Liverpool-
Everybody knows what the deal is with this game. Liverpool have a must win battle against Marseille in order to qualify for the knockout stages, while Marseille only needs at least a draw. Before the line came out, I told myself this is going to be my third 5 unit bet of the season, but after doing some studying on it, I've decided that its not. For one, Liverpool have not beat Marsielle in their last three attempts, although their 2-1 loss in Marsielle in the 03/04 season was due to a red card after Liverpool scored the opening goal. Another thing that bugged me out was the line movement. Pinny came out with a line of -1/2, -1 @ +114, then it moved to +118, then it moved to -1/2 @ -115. Usually that means that there is heavy betting on Marseille, and I don't know how the public would be against Liverpool here, especially for a must win game with no injuries, usually odds would be getting worse on Liverpool in this type of situation. But whatever the public is doing, Liverpool have to be idiots to let this game slip away from them (remind you of England vs Croatia???). It won't be an easy win, but by the end of the 90 Liverpool should take it. I'm taking this at 4 units, their history with Marseille keeps it from being a trademark 5 unit play.
4 units
Liverpool -1/2 ... -115

-Porto vs Besiktas-
Porto need a draw to advance here, they can also advance by losing if there is a winner from the Marseille/Liverpool game. If Besiktas did get a win and the other game resulted in a draw, than they would go through. With an injured up Porto I think Besiktas will keep this one close and play their hearts out.
2 units
Besiktas +1, +1.5 ... -106

-FC Schalke vs Rosenborg-
Rosenborg have been doing great in the Champions League. They held Chelsea to a draw at Stamford Bridge and even managed to beat Valencia 2-0 at the Estadio Mestalla. They deserve to go through to the next round, but that won't happen unless they take at least a draw from this game. I think Rosenborg has a lot of value in this line, and I'm sticking to them here.
3 units
Rosenborg +1.5 ... +105

67-47-5
58.8% (+47.37)

Icemantbi · Dec 10, 2007

I'm with you all the way with the Liverpool play. Can't figure out that line movement myself, maybe they are taking into account their loss to Reading?

Benitez is under immense pressure from the owners to make it far into the CL. Anyone watching Liverpool/Reading match clearly saw Benitez was looking way ahead in that game with the game against Marseille in mind. He fielded a pretty weak lineup and a bad formation, which led to a loss to a bad Reading team. Liverpool will be up for this one though, with a full squad ready to go.

stuirojo1 · Dec 11, 2007

what book do you use??

crookedlink · Dec 11, 2007

stuirojo1 said:
what book do you use??

ditto.

stupid bodog is only offering Liverpool PK (-330) and -1 (+145) both of which are a little risky IMO

KidA · Dec 11, 2007

The best books for soccer are Pinnacle and The Greek

pinnaclesports.com has the most solid lines
only thing is that they stopped USA transactions so you have to have a bank account outside the US in order to use it

Best book that offers US transactions is thegreek.com
fast payouts and pretty much the same lines as pinnacle, except they don't do the half/half spreads

crookedlink · Dec 11, 2007

Kid A said:
The best books for soccer are Pinnacle and The Greek

pinnaclesports.com has the most solid lines
only thing is that they stopped USA transactions so you have to have a bank account outside the US in order to use it

Best book that offers US transactions is thegreek.com
fast payouts and pretty much the same lines as pinnacle, except they don't do the half/half spreads

could u explain to me what the half half spread is pleasE?

KidA · Dec 11, 2007

If you look at the Besiktas game, Pinnacle has them as +1, +1.5
Lets say you place 100 dollars on Besiktas, half your wager would go on the +1 and the other half goes on the +1.5. So if Besiktas were to lose by 1, that means the +1.5 wins and the +1 pushes, resulting in you winning 50 dollars. But I haven't found any books that give those spreads to the US market.
The Greek has the same game as +1.5 with worse payback rather than the +1, +1.5.